ANALİZ- Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım) [FNC-NEWS]

• 08.06.2026 09:23

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Market Watch ? Monday, June 8, 2026Outlook:The BIST-100 Index started Friday with limited positive gains, following a bearish trend thereafter to close the day at 13,694.19, down 1.28%. The Industrial Index fell by 1.15%, while the Banking Index diverged negatively, down 3.62%. The Mining Index lost 5.59%, making it the weakest performer of the day, while the strongest was the Financial Leasing and Factoring Index with a 2.69% gain. According to TurkStat data, CPI rose by 1.71% monthly in May, slightly above the market expectation of 1.6%, while annual inflation rose to 32.61%. On the global front, the market focus on Friday was the U.S. non-farm payroll data. In May, non-farm payrolls increased by 172,000, significantly exceeding market expectations of an 85,000 increase. Following this better-than-expected data, U.S. Treasury yields rose, strengthening expectations of a Fed rate hike this year. Stock markets experienced selling pressure. In Europe, where the German DAX Index fell by 0.75%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index by 0.68%. Selling pressure was even more intense in the U.S. markets, with the Dow Jones Index falling by 1.35%, the S&P 500 Index by 2.64%, and the Nasdaq Index by 4.18%. The June futures contract for the near-term index also fell by 0.77% in Friday's evening session amid negative global sentiment. Geopolitical tension rose again in the Middle East over the weekend, with Iran and Israel exchanging ballistic missile attacks. The escalation of tension increased concerns over security risks in the region, while oil prices started the new week higher. This morning, the spot price of Brent crude oil has risen by over 4%, climbing above the USD96 level. Asian stock markets reveal bearish sentiment. In futures markets, U.S. futures are showing limited positive gains, while European futures are negatively priced. There is no major domestic data release today that will significantly impact market trends. Attention for the rest of the week will focus on the CBRT?s interest rate decision at Thursday's MPC meeting. Abroad, today's focus is on German Factory Orders and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start the new week negatively and experience volatile intraday movements. SUPPORT: 13,600 - 13,500 RESISTANCE: 13,800 - 13,900.Money Market:The Lira was negative on Friday, weakening 0.25% against the USD to close at 46.0850. The currency also appreciated by 0.29% against a basket of $0.50 and ?0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 34.27%-34.62%, ending the day at a high of 34.62%, 29 bps above its previous closing.Headlines:*** In May, CPI rises by 1.71% month-on-month and 32.61% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations. Whilst food prices are holding inflation down, clothing and footwear, plus housing and transport, continue to show strong growth? The CPI rose by 1.71% month-on-month in May, whilst annual inflation stood at 32.61% (previously 32.37%). Market expectations had been for inflation to rise by 1.6% month-on-month and 32.49% year-on-year (Seker Invest?s forecast was 1.67% month-on-month and 32.54% year-on-year). Inflation figures for May, which came in slightly above expectations, have pushed annual inflation up slightly due to base effects. For disinflation to take hold and return to a trajectory consistent with central bank forecasts, a core trend below these levels is required. In particular, the downtrend in food prices has brought headline inflation closer to expectations. Looking at the dispersion index for May, 137 sub-indices recorded an increase whilst 28 sub-indices showed a decrease. As the trend in the dispersion index also affects the core inflation trend, it is an indicator we monitor closely. Given current developments, both the rising sub-indices are becoming entrenched and the basket affecting households is above headline inflation. For the lower-income group, the increase in items constituting the majority of the consumption basket is deviating significantly upwards from headline inflation. This index, calculated using the average of food, housing and transport inflation?which accounts for 52.46% of the CPI?rose by 37.01% year-on-year in May. The inflation felt in core expenditure items is diverging significantly upwards from headline figures. The shifts in price dynamics this month can be summarized as follows. Food and non-alcoholic beverages saw a 0.48% decline in May, which pulled monthly inflation down by 0.12 percentage points. Clothing and footwear, having offset the low trend that persisted throughout 2025, rose by 11.29% month-on-month. This month, the clothing and footwear category contributed 0.75 percentage points to monthly inflation. However, annual inflation remains at a low level of 14.08%. Transport, with a monthly increase of 2.03%, contributed 0.35 percentage points to inflation this month, and annual inflation stands at 34.29%. The high trend in energy prices is clearly reflected in administered/regulated prices through these categories. Although housing inflation has started to decline this month, it remains above headline inflation. Rising by 2.28% month-on-month, housing contributed 0.27 percentage points to monthly inflation and 6.07 percentage points to annual inflation. Of the 32.61% annual inflation rate, 20.3 percentage points stem from the food, housing and transport categories. In the B index (core inflation), which is the Special Comprehensive CPI Indicator, monthly inflation stood at 2.87 per cent, whilst annual inflation reached 31.3 per cent. When assessed on an annual basis, the pace of disinflation in the core indicators is better than the headline figures. This provides us with a clue as to where the focus of the fight against inflation should lie. Disinflation is in a better state when temporary items such as food and energy are excluded. In particular, if food and energy shocks are steered onto a more stable path using appropriate methods, it will be possible to achieve the results of monetary policy more effectively. Recent political and economic developments have necessitated the central bank to adopt certain macroprudential measures. These measures are crucial for bringing credit growth rates in line with inflation and ensuring the continuation of disinflation. Furthermore, the continuation of a hawkish stance and the postponement of interest rate cuts signal that no concessions will be made in the fight against inflation. When considered alongside the updates to the central bank?s year-end forecasts in the latest inflation report, we believe a cautious approach will be adopted regarding interest rate cuts until inflation falls below the 30% level. We anticipate that oil prices will stabilize at around USD75?80 per barrel by year-end. Under this assumption, we estimate that inflation will rise to the 25?29% range and close at 27% by year-end. We would like to note that these forecasts are valid provided that current geopolitical tensions are resolved through negotiations rather than on the battlefield, and that the tight monetary policy stance is maintained.Raporun tamamına buradan ulaşabilirsiniz.
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