ANALİZ-Morning Report(TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler) [FNC-NEWS]

• 17.05.2023 09:31

https://news-files.foreks.com/attachment/1684305046084_TFGISTANBULMORNINGREPORT17MAY2023.pdf

TRYING TO MAKE AMMENDS

The BIST managed to close nearly 2% higher yesterday, at 4590, with an impressive turnover of TRY 85.5bn thus paring Monday?s losses, however, the stocks that led the rally last week, continued to have a hard time getting back on their on their feet, specifically speaking, the Banks-Conglomerates and Food Retail stocks, that investors keenly bought on count that there might be a return to orthodox economic policies. The international markets closed negatively yesterday, the US stocks still hampered by the debt-ceiling uncertainty, coupled by the hawkish Fed-speak yesterday from Mester and Kashkari ?Job not over yet.?
The Banks, and yes, the private banks, continued to be the most sold sector stocks, falling by another 8%, due to the limit-down closing of ISCTR at TRY 11.33, though it briefly was traded above its limit-down level and peaking at TRY 11.58, and followed by GARAN and YKBNK shares, with KCHOL and BIMAS following the banks at the bottom of the BIST30 standing. Now focusing on the bright side, KOZAA, KRDMD and THYAO topped the best 3 stocks, and were followed by THYAO and interestingly TOASO, whose parent company KCHOL, was on the deep-red end of the spectrum.
Today, we expect a flat opening at the BIST, but the lifting of the limit-down trading at ISCTR and the negative overhang on KCHOL and the private banks, may spur reactionary gains.
The USDTRY is trading a tad higher at 19.74, whereas the DXY has fallen slightly this morning to 102.63. On the bonds? side, the 2yr and 10yr yields both fell by 144bps and 174bps to 7.92% and 9.85%, respectively. Further slide in TRY bond yields likely for today as banks are enforced to buy more securities if they fail to convince FX depositors to switch to TRY accounts.
On the commodity front GOLD is now below the US$2000 threshold at US$1990 due to stronger DXY, US debt ceiling issues and also due to the possible divestiture of gold reserves by some central banks in our view. Brent has risen slightly to USD 74.75, recovering briefly after the underperformance 5.6% growth in the industrial production rate, and retail sales also below expectations despite rising by 18.4%.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said that she does not think the U.S. central bank is at a point yet where it can hold interest rates steady for a period of time, given the stubborn inflation.
Fed VC for Supervision, Mr. Michael Barr, called for tougher regulations and rules after the bank failures.
The German ZEW Index declined to -10.7% vs the expected -5.5%, and the EX has revised its 2023 growth rate to 1.0% in 2023 from 0.8%.
Turkey home sales fell by 35.6% in April y/y, whereas sales to foreigners slumped by 60.3% on an annual basis. We envisage further decline in real estate sales due to limitations on annual rent increases.
The Central Bank changed the thresholds for the additional conversion obligation from foreign currency to TL for real person accounts. Banks that fail to achieve 10 percent TL conversion in real person accounts between May 26 and July 28, 2023, will establish securities for 6 months for the missing part. After July 28, the additional conversion rate threshold from foreign currency to TL will increase to 30 percent. After this date, the bank will block an additional 10 percent of securities until the target is met. That is why we envisage further slide in TRY bond yields. Negative for banks as TRY time deposit rates jumped to over 35% while those securities yield at most 10%.

NEWS FLOW:
·         ALMAD/BIMAS: Disclosed that it has ended its share buyback program.
·         ALARK: Disclosed that its subsidiary, Alarko Tarim will buy a locak agriculture company for USD 1.8mn
·         ASTOR: Disclosed it has signed an agreement to sell a total 6 power transformers to Senegal for ?1.8mn, and an agreement with a local construction firm worth USD 5mn.
·         EKGYO: Disclosed that it has signed a TRY 7.8bn development agreement with PSGYO, and TRY 12bn with another local construction firm.
·         GESAN: Disclosed that it was awarded a TRY 41mn agreement in Ankara Industrial Organization
·         GENIL: Disclosed an additional USD 0.50mn investment with Neo Auvra.
·         MPARK: Disclosed that shareholder Lightyear Healthcare has made 9.5% shares tradeable at the BIST.
·         ORGE: Disclosed receiving a USD 0.95mn order in Kocaeli
·         PENGD: Has decided to invest in a solar power plant (GES).- In the statement made to the Public Disclosure Platform (KAP), "Our company, in line with the energy efficiency targets within the scope of the current sustainability studies, our company has initiated a feasibility study of the GES project for the purpose of electricity generation to meet all of its own needs and within this framework, alternative collaborations and researches on the turnkey and operation of the whole business such as project development, engineering, product supply, construction, mechanics and electronics has been decided to carry it out.?
·         SUWEN ? It has been decided to increase the capital of the company from 56 million TL to 224 million TL with an increase of 168 million TL by 300% bonus issue
·         TURSG: Disclosed that its premium revenues rose by 128% to TRY 16.3bn.
·         UNLU: Disclosed that it has allocated 4mn shares, equivalent to roughly TRY 35mn for share buyback program.
AGENDA:

Housing price Index will be released on the local front, whereas across the pond, the US April Housing starts and Building permits will be disclosed, as well as the Eurozone Inflation figures.


Foreks Haber Merkezi ( haber@foreks.com )
Foreks
Metals Market
Montel News
Foreks Twitter
Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir. Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti, aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır. Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.